This very day, this very moment as I write, hundreds of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles are descending upon Israel. In just a few hours, the skies over Israel will be on fire.
This is the first such attack in history. And as a result, more history is about to be made, none of it good.
No one can deny that we are on the edge of a cataclysmic conflict that could culminate in a global nuclear war. Beyond the almost incomprehensible heat, fire, wind and blast destruction of nuclear war, after the the last warhead explodes the long-term effects begin, one of which is nuclear winter.
Make no mistake, if we survive nuclear war, every person will need to be armed to survive the aftermath.
Forget global warming, nuclear winter is the real, and most likely, existential climate threat to human life. Here’s why:
What Happens in a Nuclear Winter?
A nuclear winter refers to the severe and prolonged global climatic cooling effect hypothesized to occur after widespread firestorms following a nuclear war. Smoke and soot from the fires would enter the stratosphere and spread globally, blocking sunlight from reaching the surface of the Earth. The effects of a nuclear winter, according to various studies and models, could include:
- Dramatic Cooling: Temperatures across the globe could drop significantly, in some models by as much as 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, though the exact amount would depend on the scale of the nuclear exchange and the resulting fires.
- Reduced Sunlight: The smoke and soot in the stratosphere could reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface by up to 99% in some models, severely affecting photosynthesis in plants and potentially leading to the collapse of ecosystems.
- Agricultural Collapse: The combination of cooling, reduced sunlight, and potential radioactive fallout could severely impact agricultural productivity, leading to global food shortages and famine. Certain crops would fail to grow under the diminished sunlight, and cooling temperatures could freeze others out.
- Health Impacts: Apart from the immediate casualties from the nuclear explosions and subsequent radiation exposure, the long-term effects could include increased cancer rates, weakened immune systems due to a lack of sunlight and malnutrition, and a potential increase in mental health issues stemming from the societal and environmental stress.
- Ecosystem Disruption: Many ecosystems could collapse or undergo severe stress due to the sudden change in climate and the loss of plant life. This would affect the entire food chain, from plants to herbivores to predators.
- Economic and Social Collapse: The impact on agriculture and infrastructure, combined with the loss of life and health effects, would likely lead to severe economic downturns, the collapse of social order in certain areas, and massive displacement of populations.
- Long-term Environmental Changes: Even after the initial effects of nuclear winter begin to fade, the global environment may be irreversibly changed, with new patterns of vegetation, altered climate zones, and the loss of biodiversity.
The severity of a nuclear winter would depend on numerous factors, including the scale of the nuclear conflict, the geographical locations of the detonations, and the subsequent fires. But the reality of a nuclear winter shows the potential for catastrophic, global collateral damage from nuclear war.